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We pose the question – what if we could develop a way of predicting which companies are more likely to be suffering distress, and which were not? The idea contains three parts: A. Certain individual observations or metrics can separately tell us about stocks that might – in the near future – find themselves in trouble. B. If we combine enough of these metrics together – without overfitting – we can get synergy between the factors. C. If we build a smart model that is designed specifically to target corporate distress, then we can apply and refine the predictions from the metrics in a better way.
The ongoing swell of inflation and interest rates are taking the wind out of sails of growth, propelling value to the bow of the boat as long-term active investors look ahead for opportunities.
In these articles the quantitative investment manager RQI Investors highlights a range of topical issues in financial markets and quantitative investing.
The performance of Australian small caps has lagged behind the ASX100 over the last decade leaving many investors questioning whether an allocation to Australian small caps is worthwhile.
Does tilting towards dividend payments deliver excess returns?
Recent actions by China in Hong Kong and rising geopolitical tensions between China and the US have resulted in the US taking a range of actions including the enactment of the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act. One potential consequence of this Act is the forced delisting of Chinese American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) on US exchanges.
A 20-year dispute between US and Chinese regulators regarding the auditing of Chinese-domiciled but US-listed securities could soon be resolved. The Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) has recently signed a Statement of Protocol with the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) and the Ministry of Finance of the People’s Republic of China governing inspections and investigations of audit firms based in China and Hong Kong. This agreement establishes a specific, accountable framework to make possible complete inspections and investigations by the PCAOB of audit firms based in China and Hong Kong, as required under US law. While this new agreement is an important step forward, it should be noted that the agreement itself does not satisfy the HFCAA. Compliance with the agreement is ultimately what matters and US regulators will be monitoring compliance. The news of an agreement has provided some relief to investors and is an important step forward in resolving this dispute after significant uncertainly.
The Realindex Australian Share Value-Class A Fund is a real achiever that, since its inception in 2008, has delivered long-term outperformance compared to its benchmark for investors.
RQI Investors’ quantitative value strategies have a long history of outperformance versus peers and value indices. Our disciplined, highly active, and repeatable value investing process provides investors with a benchmark unaware, diversified equity portfolio that is cost competitive versus fundamental active stock pickers.
Diversified Alpha is a core systematic strategy designed to deliver consistent, risk-adjusted returns above the benchmark, with Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) considerations embedded into the process.
First Sentier Investors are the world-leading provider of specialist investment capabilities. Discover how we provide research-led active investment management.
Over the last 5 years, China has been on the rise within the Emerging Markets. We have all heard the story of the China Dragon and the impressive growth that the Chinese economy has been able to achieve relative to other large economies since the early 1990s. Even more recently as its growth has reduced it is still achieving more than double the growth of the United States. We believe the increase in regulatory risk from both the US and domestically in China has been a large contributor to this fall. The question for investors is this: will it continue and where does the next risk lie?
What are zombie firms? How can they affect Australian investors?
It’s hard not to react to what the markets are doing. It can be tempting to sell out of certain asset classes or follow the herd to the ‘next best thing’ but fortune favours the patient investor.
Leveraging our recent paper, ‘Reducing carbon intensity in portfolios: Better news than you think’, which analysed the investment impact of reducing carbon exposure versus the benchmark; we turn our attention to how we can reduce carbon risk in our Value strategies.
Time flies in the world of investments, and the themes that were emerging last year have gathered speed since then. Late in 2021 we published a Realinsights paper on the long-term relationship between inflation and Value-style investing, focused on whether the inflation spike we had been seeing on the back of the COVID lockdown and stimulus packages would drive outperformance of Value compared to Growth-style investments. Events have moved swiftly since then, including the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict; high realised and anticipated inflation; and a risk of a global recession. In this context, we have revisited the question of how Value stocks are performing.
Discover how our equity managers with one of Australia's longest track records provide capital and income growth by investing in the Australian share market.
This final paper is somewhat shorter than the first two, and simply aims to look a little deeper into whether zombie firms appear in Realindex portfolios, and how a Quality factor acts as a repellent for these stocks. This is more important in Value-oriented portfolios as the potential appearance of lower quality “junk” firms, or even zombies, is higher here than in broader universes.
Incorporated in 1885, BHP began as a silver, lead and zinc mine in Broken Hill, Australia. Over the next century the company grew into one of the largest diversified resource companies in the world with operations including oil and gas, steel production and mining of a variety of commodities including copper, potash, coal and diamonds. It listed on the Australian stock exchange in July 1961, making it the oldest company currently trading, and throughout much of this time it has been the largest company on the ASX by market capitalisation (currently it is ranked third). In 2001 BHP announced it would merge with fellow resource powerhouse Billiton. Billiton also had a long history dating back to a single tin mine in 1851 before growing into a major producer of aluminium, alumina, chrome, manganese, steaming coal, nickel and titanium. The company was Dutch controlled from inception before being acquired by South African firm Gencor in 1994. As the world’s largest metals and mining corporation, BHP Billiton began trading in July 2002 and operates as a dual listed company (DLC) – a corporate structure in which two companies have merged into a single operating business but retain separate legal identities and stock exchange listings (in this case Australia and the United Kingdom ).
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