Close 
Insights
At AlbaCore, we focus on the long-term. As one of Europe’s leading alternative credit specialists, we invest in private capital solutions, opportunistic and dislocated credit, and structured products.
Discover moreInvestment strategies
Insights
Close 
Specialist in Asia Pacific, China, India and South East Asia and Global Emerging Market equities.
Discover moreClose 
Our philosophy is very simple. We are constantly searching for high quality businesses and when we acquire them, we will work relentlessly with them to create long-term sustainable value through innovation, ESG-led and proactive asset management.
Discover moreInvestment strategies
Insights
Close 
Insights
formerly Realindex Investments
Leader in active quantitative equities across Australian equities, global equities, emerging markets and global small companies.
Backed by a unique blend of research, portfolio construction and risk management, focused on uncovering original insights and translating them into investment strategies that are active and systematic, aiming to generate alpha.
Discover moreInvestment strategies
Insights
Close 
At Stewart Investors, we believe in putting people first. Our investment world-view is of a series of partnerships – with each other, with our clients, with the companies we invest in, the people who buy their goods and services, and with the wider society in which we all live and work.
Discover more
Showing 1 to 31 of 31 results.
We have just returned from India — the first investment research trip in India for our entire team in over two years. It was a liberating break from constantly hearing “You’re on mute!” on video calls whilst simultaneously being forced to appreciate your kids’ music lessons in the adjoining room. Saying, “Sorry we are a bit late, the traffic was quite bad,” face-to-face is so much more satisfying! Readers familiar with our team will know that assessing organisational culture is at the heart of our investment process. In that context, the comparison between meeting the CEO and the senior management team in his or her office versus a zoom call is like chalk and cheese. We can pick up several cues about culture before we even start the meeting. For example, in the composition of the car park, how bureaucratic the visitor check-in process is, whether there is segregation between management layers — right from the elevators they are allowed to use (yes, this is a thing!) — or if there are pictures of the CEO/owner with famous personalities in the boardrooms and so much more. When a new CEO of a company tells us that capital allocation is going to change for the better, we need to see the look in his or her eye and the body language and the mood in the office to believe it. For our team, a return to ‘normal’ feels like a major handicap has been lifted.
Our investment philosophy is to back owners and managers with whom we feel strongly aligned. These owners typically have track records of treating all stakeholders fairly, in both good and bad times. They are ambitious in growing their business, but also risk-aware in their pursuit of growth. In India, we typically find these traits in family-owned companies (commonly referred to as “promoter groups”). Families are able to take a multi-decade view of their business and act counter-cyclically to create value for all shareholders. Our favoured promoter groups are those who recognise the advantages of introducing professionally-run management teams, high-quality boards and other best practices with respect to governance. We follow such changes closely to identify the cultural markers of families which are likely to succeed over time, and others that may be left behind.
We have written about the spate of Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) in India and our reasons for staying away from them, for the most part. This time, we want to talk about why new listings are important to keep the market vibrant and to keep the entrepreneurial spirit in the country alive. In the last 18 months or so, India has witnessed more than 120 IPOs and follow-on offerings. This may seem like a maniacal pace, and indeed it is. However, this statistic absolutely pales in comparison to the five-year period from March 1992 to March 1997, during which an astounding 4,712 listings occurred – equivalent to nearly three IPOs every single day for five years!
The most attractive point about India is that there are about 6,000 listed companies across a diverse range of sectors. That gives us the opportunity to invest in high quality businesses across a range of industries. This is unlike some other emerging markets where investors might find themselves restricted to only a handful of industries. Additionally, India has one of the oldest stock markets in the world. The culture of equity ownership is prevalent and people are familiar with the rules that come with it. Over the years, governance standards, the composition of a board, gender diversity, and protection of minority shareholders — they have all improved. Over time, corporate governance regulations in India have also strengthened significantly. As regulators have tightened rules related to company privatisation, royalty payments and disclosure of related party transactions, the protection of minority shareholder interests has consistently improved. Another aspect that makes India stand out from her emerging market peers is the quality of companies there. In India, you will find many high-quality private companies
Every company we speak to these days tells us about the cost pressure that they are facing, emanating from rising global commodity prices. Domestic steel prices have risen by 35% y/y, copper by over 50% y/y and palm oil by over 60% y/y through February 2021. Indian corporates are being forced to reckon with sharp increases in input costs for the first time in almost a decade. We believe that pricing power is often the critical litmus test of a franchise’s quality.
Land, Labour, Capital and Entrepreneurship. These are the well-known “Factors of Production” as defined by classical economists. The Entrepreneur (or Company) is the one that combines these factors to earn a profit. However, in our view, each of these factors has been overly exploited over the past 20-30 years and everything has become secondary to “profit” (to be used interchangeably with “market capitalisation”, albeit the link between the two has grown tenuous in recent years). The chart below, which shows how corporate profits have grown in relation to GDP in the US, captures the trend well — the ratio has more than doubled over 30 years. In other words, the pendulum has perhaps swung too far in favour of capital market participants.
50x P/E!1 70x P/E! 100x P/E! Valuations that were outrageous just a few years ago are commonly bandied about by most of the investment community these days. But, ask any respected business owner and they would shake their head in disbelief. The difference in perspective is critical. The entrepreneur is looking at the free cash flows the business could generate over the long term, and how long it would take to recoup his or her investment if they were to buy a business in its entirety. At 80x P/E, which is not uncommon in India these days, it would take a full 19 years to recover the purchase cost, even if the business’ underlying cash flows (or earnings) compound at 15% annually, and there is no re-investment to achieve this growth. Business owners whom we rate highly would not allocate capital to such opportunities. Yet, we have seen many listed companies in India witness a significant re-rating of valuations in recent years, on the back of which they have delivered exceptional shareholder returns. Our decision to not invest, or sell out of such businesses on valuation grounds have been our mistakes of omission. Yet, when we analyse these errors, as we always do, we believe that these decisions were in keeping with our disciplined investment process, which has withstood the test of time. We discuss a few below.
As bottom-up investors, the FSSA team carry out well over 1,500 meetings each year to assess company managements’ capabilities and the underlying strength of the franchises they run. These Monthly Manager Views are based on the team’s discussions with company management and the in-depth analysis that follows.
We had entered the meeting with a leading air-conditioner company in our portfolio worried about the risks to its growth and profitability, as the second wave of Covid-19 affected consumer demand and raw material costs rose sharply. But the company’s CEO told us about the acceptance of increased prices by their channel partners and customers and strong demand before localised lockdowns were introduced in April. The company had reported a 24% growth in sales and more than doubling of its operating profit in the quarter ended March 2021, compared to the same period last year. He was optimistic about an improvement in their profitability despite a significant increase in raw material costs and was continuing their investments in expanding capacity.
Learn about investing in global emerging market equities with FSSA IM. Our GEM funds invest in high quality companies that outperform over the long term.
As bottom-up investors, the FSSA team carry out well over 1,500 meetings each year to assess company managements’ capabilities and the underlying strength of the franchises they run. These monthly manager views are based on the team’s discussions with company management and the in-depth analysis that follows.
As the saying goes, “There are two kinds of forecasters: those who don't know, and those who don't know they don't know.” Recently, we have seen hordes of the latter kind, garbed as analysts, Unicorn founders, freshly-minted CEOs and so-called “experts”, as they engage in modern-day snake oil salesmanship, which is what seems to pass for Fundamental Equity Research these days. The difference between making forecasts and predictions is the difference between a rational investor and a soothsayer. Today, there are a number of companies and analysts who desperately pretend that a different set of rules apply to them. To that end, they have even invented a new jargon-littered language that has been enthusiastically adopted by the investing community. Some of the words and phrases being used (and over-used) these days make us wince. Let’s look at a few.
Learn about investing in Asia Pacific equities with FSSA IM today. Our APAC funds invest in high quality companies that outperform over the long term.
Mutations, it would seem, are not unique to the virus. Starting with some housekeeping, we always end our letters seeking feedback from our regular readers. Two common points we have received is that our letters are generally too long and the semi-annual schedule we have adhered to in the past is too infrequent. Therefore, we are pleased to implement a change in the format and cadence of our communications. In this new version, our letters will focus on portfolio updates and brief thoughts on pertinent topics. Moreover, we aim to write on a quarterly basis. This, we hope, will be more suited to the wishes of regular readers. Since our last update, the initial public offering (IPO) frenzy we have observed for the past 12-18 months has continued unabated. This is especially true in India where there have been around 100 IPOs so far this year. These newly-listed entities have raised a combined USD 12bn from investors and yet only 20 of them reported a net profit of more than USD 10m! Undoubtedly, some of these companies will grow into their valuations and, in hindsight, a few might even seem like bargains today. However, the asymmetry of information in any IPO process means that new shareholders are at a disadvantage. Many IPO prospects often fail to answer the following question convincingly: why would a knowledgeable seller, sell part of their business to a less-knowledgeable, non-strategic buyer?
FSSA India webcast focus on the India Subcontinent Markets and Asia Pacific equities
As with global automotive manufacturers, several Indian automotive original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) including Maruti Suzuki, Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M), Tata Motors and Eicher Motors have recently announced that the shortage of semiconductor supply has impacted their production schedules. This has added to the persistent challenges faced by the industry over the last few years. The introduction of new safety and emission regulations, higher insurance costs and an increase in road taxes in several states have raised vehicle ownership costs substantially over the last three years. A funding crisis among non-bank finance companies reduced financing available to buyers. The disruption from Covid-19 exacerbated the impact on industry sales. In fiscal year (FY) 2021, passenger vehicle sales in India were only 8% higher than a decade ago, while commercial vehicle sales have declined by 16% over a decade
Learn about investing in the world's fastest growing markets with FSSA Investment Managers. We invest in high quality equities that outperform over the long term.
As many economies have bounced back from the worst of the pandemic, concerns about central banks, the rate of money-printing and inflation have returned. Markets have responded to the arrival of better times by selling off bonds and bond-like equities. The stocks that benefited most from lower discount rates, have fallen. The most speculative, Covid-bolstered, technological and crowded end of the market have been hit the hardest. Against this backdrop, many investors are considering how to position their portfolio for the post-pandemic world. In our view, the key is to remain focused on our investment philosophy, which is to seek high-quality companies to invest in for the long term.
Despite China being the first country to face the challenges of Covid, early optimism around its control over the virus seems to have waned. As Chinese cities and provinces continue to battle against new variants and local surges, consumer spending is down and the economy is starting to slow. On top of that, there have been increasingly cumbersome regulations on Chinese technology companies, the medical sector and the property market – the latter causing the implosion of a number of property developers late last year. The Chinese government has now shifted to a more accommodating stance in a bid to stabilise the economy. But its “Common Prosperity” goal and zero-Covid policy is likely here to stay. Against this backdrop, FSSA’s portfolio managers discuss their views about the changing opportunity set in China – and how they have positioned the team’s China portfolios to tap into the longer-term growth story.
In our last client update, written through the depths of Covid-despair, we observed that real life and the world of markets are seldom so intimately entwined. With markets swinging violently to the downside on a riptide of fear, it was clear even then that activity was being driven by short-term anxiety rather than a real evaluation of Asia’s longer-term value-accretion prospects.
Strategists often argue that Japan is perhaps the most cyclical market amongst the major global economies, with profits highly correlated to global trade. We disagree. It is true that many of the large index constituents are companies with high overseas exposure or are highly sensitive to forex fluctuations. However, in our view, Japan’s economy is actually very defensive and mainly driven by domestic demand. Japan’s exports account for less than 20% of GDP — far lower than that of Germany or South Korea where more than 40% of GDP is derived from exports. Another misconception about Japan is that the ageing population and prolonged deflationary environment means that there are few quality companies that can deliver high growth and returns. We disagree with that notion too. Especially from a bottom-up perspective, our view is that Japan has a deep investment universe with many high-quality companies that are focused on delivering sustainable growth and returns and are uncorrelated to the global macro environment.
In 2020, one group of companies has done particularly well – the popular digital technology companies focused on e-commerce, delivery and entertainment, to name a few industries. In emerging markets, they dominate the Chinese market; but they can also be found in Korea, Southeast Asia, Eastern Europe and Latin America. We do not own many of these in the strategy; and as such, we are often asked: What holds us back? After all, they have performed well and – at least on paper – should have the prerequisite to generate strong returns and free cash flow, given their often high gross margins, negative working capital profiles and asset light nature. While we are not disputing the potential for this in the future, we would argue for cautiousness on most of these projections.
In almost every meeting that we have with management teams, we will ask about incentivisation. In our view, it is an important question and the answer can be highly revealing about an organisation’s culture and behaviour. While it can be easy to be deceived by articulate CEOs talking up a big game with lots of investor-friendly buzzwords, in our experience what ultimately drives outcomes (at least the ones that management teams can influence) are the incentives. As with most things, striking the right balance is key. If there are no incentives to good performance (and no disincentive for poor performance), companies often end up with capital being systematically mis-allocated without any accountability. This tends to be the case with most State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs), which is one of the reasons we are generally cautious on them. On the other hand, too much of a good thing can also have adverse consequences, which we often see in turbo-charged incentive schemes concentrated among just a few senior executives. While they might lead to exponential growth for a short period of time, the growth is usually not sustainable. After a rapid period of expansion, imbalances are typically built up and when growth inevitably slows it is usually not just one skeleton that falls out of the closet.
Since our last update, global markets have not been short of action and the manic behaviour characterising today’s markets has taken investors on another rollercoaster ride. While not quite comparable to the market movements seen during the dark days of March 2020, the recent correction — especially in China-related companies — has been notable. Yet, from a market perspective, a sense of normality is finally starting to emerge after the more speculative phases over the past 12-18 months. Companies related to the Work- or Consumed-From-Home environment are starting to discount a more realistic outlook and, equally, franchises with good long-term prospects that were experiencing temporary uncertainties caused by the pandemic have, for the most part, regained some of the lost ground as their underlying business fundamentals continue to improve.
First State Stewart Asia believe the best companies can typically be found among the leading consumer, financial or industrial companies in the less developed parts of the world. Here the team reflect on some investments made in emerging markets, including India, Brazil, South Africa, Russia, China and Mexico.
An overview of the Asian Equity Plus and Asia Pacific Small-Caps strategies in August 2020.
All of us have been brutally confronted by a new reality in the last few months. It has certainly been crude, with financial markets swinging around on a riptide of greed and fear, as we the participants have vacillated between elation and despair. It is not surprising. Life and the world of markets are seldom so intimately entwined.
All of us have been brutally confronted by a new reality in the last few months. It has certainly been crude, with financial markets swinging around on a riptide of greed and fear, as we the participants have vacillated between elation and despair. It is not surprising. Life and the world of markets are seldom so intimately entwined.
Though Covid hasn’t yet finished with us, the markets have finished with Covid. In real life, there is still plenty of misery to go around, but in our opinion things have seldom been better for investors. Optimism has served us well, as the money-printing presses have rolled to counter the “unprecedented” threat. In investment, perhaps it is better to be a stupid optimist than a clever pessimist. And, we believe markets do indeed go up most of the time.
Last quarter I visited infrastructure companies in Tokyo, Osaka and Nagoya. The trip included visits to ten corporate head offices and three site tours. This paper seeks to share some of the key findings from my meetings with Japanese passenger rail and utility companies.
Global listed infrastructure underperformed in 2023 owing to rising interest rates and a shift away from defensive assets. Relative valuations are now at compelling levels. Infrastructure assets are expected to see earnings growth in 2024 and beyond, aided by structural growth drivers.
 |  |
|---|