As is the case each January, in this edition of First Insights, we discuss the key themes and risks for the year ahead. 2017 looks set to be dominated by President Trump and his plans for significant fiscal policy easing in the US.

The real issue for markets will be whether Trump’s policies will permanently raise the US’s potential GDP growth rate. If so, then markets are right to be bullish. But the risks remain for a boom-bust cycle that leads to higher inflation and higher interest rates.

Geopolitics are likely to dominate elsewhere, including in the UK, Europe and China. I discuss these themes and risks in this edition of First Insights. In addition, we provide our regular Market Watch and charts pack, as well as our forecasts for the key economies we cover and a summary of our research publications through Q4, 2016.

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